First, the top news: President-Elect Donald Trump’s second administration is unlikely to view climate action as a priority. As Li Shuo of the Asia Society put it, “climate does not enjoy the same level of momentum it had a couple of years ago.” We could still be surprised, of course; Elon Musk is likely to have a prominent voice in the administration (Trump called him “an amazing guy”), and Musk has undeniably been a major driver of the climate industry. But, language is important and given Trump’s history of climate skepticism, the smart money says that anything explicitly sold as “green or ESG sensitive” is unlikely to resonate with the new administration.
Yet the climate industry and even climate activists should not despair. The overall fight against climate change may well suffer, but the energy transition, and even market-based approaches for limiting emissions, will move forward. What’s more, an opportunity exists for a strong, bipartisan agenda that, as an ancillary rather than primary benefit, could reduce carbon emissions. As long as the climate community doesn’t trumpet it as a “climate” or “green” agenda, there are a series of legislative and regulatory actions the new administration and the new Congress could pursue that fit squarely into Trump’s agenda and reduce emissions. They include:
- Putting a Trump “Stamp” on the Inflation Reduction Act. As Antenna has noted, many Republican members of Congress are not eager to rip up the IRA. There’s a simple reason: most of the IRA’s benefits have flowed to parts of the country represented by Republican members of Congress and/or Republican governors. No politician is eager to tell their constituents “you no longer have a job because of how I voted.”
That said, Trump could put his own stamp on the IRA (and, to a similar extent, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law) by cutting regulations and touting how it would make America more competitive. We should encourage that impulse. For starters, he could cut red tape for starting projects. Few people in our industry oppose permitting for new projects–whether they’re roads and bridges, grid updates and expansions, ports or nearly anything else–that is streamlined and faster. Indeed, the bipartisan National Governors Association has been pushing on this issue for years. While the details matter, Trump and Congress could work in a bipartisan fashion to try to shorten the regulatory review process that takes years and which grants near-veto power to what are essentially NIMBY activists.
This reduction in red tape could extend to an entire wishlist of the climate industry, from the “geographical proximity” rule regarding low-income neighborhoods that hems in efforts to build more solar capacity to the countless reviews projects must undergo before they’re approved.
- The Ships for America Act: Word of this bill is already floating around Congress, and while it is unlikely to pass in a lame-duck session, an updated version could pass in the new one. While details are still coming, it would dramatically increase funding to build and expand U.S. shipyards and train more mariners and the other sorts of professions shipbuilding requires (think welders, electricians, pipefitters, and the like).
So, how is this a climate bill? First, many skills needed for shipbuilding are also needed for the green energy transition, and we face a desperate shortage of workers to fill green job vacancies. For instance we’re expected to need about 73,000 new electricians every year for the next eight years, not counting the already unfilled positions. There’s a reason so many green energy companies report labor shortages as one of their top issues. Anything that trains more people in these fields will help green energy companies. A rising tide lifts all boats.
The climate benefits go even further, though. Per mile/ton, ships are one of the most carbon-friendly forms of transporting goods. That is particularly true of inland barges, and America’s vast system of rivers should be crawling with American-made barges. That they aren’t is putting millions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere, forcing goods onto more carbon-intensive trucks and trains. American shipbuilding could fix that problem.
Moreover, exciting work is happening to decarbonize shipping, and America could be at its leading edge. New technologies can capture the carbon ships produce and trap it in limestone. Shipping giant Maersk is hammering out a zero-carbon cargo ship. American shipbuilders could apply these same technologies.
- Blue-Collar Jobs: Trump’s coalition includes non-college educated men. It’s not a secret that non-college educated young men from low-income families are struggling by every economic and social measure.
Trump will want to deliver something important for this demographic as these voters were instrumental to his victory. Jobs and more jobs is a winning ticket for both political parties and the green economy has been and can continue to be a huge driver of jobs that pay well, that do not require a four-year college degree, and that allow people to work with their hands instead of hunched over a computer screen.
The green economy’s major opportunity, however, lies not in what it already does for both Trump’s agenda and that of the Democratic party; it’s that the green economy could benefit immensely from a major, bipartisan bill that would invest massively in jobs training to produce more skilled tradespeople.
The “political math” works; Trump needs to demonstrate that his emphasis on “rebuilding America” and focus on American workers was more than just talk. Democrats have loved skilled-jobs training and apprenticeship programs since FDR’s time.
The economic fit is nearly perfect, too. The economy is screaming for more skilled craftspeople, and the people who do such work report high job satisfaction. These fields offer good wages, and the labor shortages make these jobs very secure. If anything, their wages will likely rise steadily.
A massive investment in skilled craftspeople will be good for the economy and the people it trains, but it will also help limit emissions. Companies focused on combatting the climate crisis desperately need construction workers, welders, advanced manufacturing specialists, windmill and solar repair specialists, installers, and, of course, electricians. The parties could work together to make labor shortages–like the ones felt most acutely by the climate industry–a thing of the past.
While there will be political headwinds, there is plenty of cause for optimism as well. There are real opportunities that will garner bipartisan support and it is critical that the climate community embrace them.