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Denver is ground zero for the U.S. renewable energy industry this week, as ASES (http://ases.org/), the American Solar Energy Society, and the World Renewable Energy Forum (WREF) join forces for the first time to collocate in the LEED-certified Colorado Convention Center. The result? A solar conference that is breaking free from traditional PV events by happily sharing the stage with wind, storage, energy efficiency, electric vehicles and other synergistic technologies.

For those of us that have been a part of the cleantech movement over the past decade, solar has long been positioned as the heir-apparent to the energy generation challenge, with a multitude of different flavors (Si, aSi, concentrated, thin film) and applications. And while solar has unquestionably taken root, it, like the other renewable technologies, has remained virtually siloed.

Panelists discuss the market opportunities for EV and PV

So, at WREF it was encouraging to hear the solar conversations evolve beyond talk of simple PV installations and instead reveal the new avenues in which solar is fulfilling its potential in the nation’s renewable energy portfolio.

Representatives from REC Solar and Schneider Electric join the panel on the intersection of PV and EV

Yesterday gave way to insightful talks on new directions in which solar is evolving, ranging from PV’s integration with energy efficiency and demand response to solar’s emergence as a new financial asset class. I even had the pleasure of moderating a panel on PV’s growing role in the electric vehicles movement, which showcased three pioneers—ECOtality www.ecotality.com, REC Solar www.recsolar.com and Schneider Electric www.schneider-electric.com —that are driving industry collaboration. Each has achieved impressive milestones towards the creation of a new national infrastructure based on years worth of behavioral data, technical advancements and demand dynamics.

My last image of the panel was the sheer knowledge of the audience. 10 years ago most members would have struggled to decode the acronyms and techo-talk being tossed about, but today’s Q&A underscored just how far we’ve come, both as a nation and as a united industry.

- Caroline Venza

Many are too young to remember the Arab oil embargo of October 1973 that resulted in lines for gasoline that snaked around the block. The embargo, which lasted through March 1974, was launched in response to the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military during the Yom Kippur War. I was little affected because I was living in a state favored by a flawed gasoline allocation system that rewarded rural over urban areas. But the embargo severely affected most of the nation: the price of oil quadrupled, gas was rationed, speed limits were reduced and year-round daylight saving time was implemented. There was even a toilet paper panic as rumors spread about a shortage due to a lack of petroleum used in paper manufacturing. And that’s to say nothing of the general economic chaos: the American Automobile Association reported, for instance, that 20 percent of American gas stations had no fuel in the last week of February 1974.

The 1973 oil embargo was one factor influencing President Jimmy Carter to launch his MEOW initiative in 1977, in which he likened the need for energy security to the Moral Equivalent Of War, memorialized by the acronym MEOW. Carter proposed a 10-point plan to increase energy security in order to forestall the “national catastrophe” that he envisioned as a consequence of future interruptions to the oil supply.

Nearly 40 years later, very little has changed — in fact, we are now far more vulnerable than we were then. In 1973, we imported 35 percent of our oil, compared to more than 61 percent in 2010. In 1973 we spent $37 billion a year on foreign oil, compared to about that much per month today — money that is in large measure funding the arming of our enemies. And the Middle East is now more unstable than ever. The heightened tensions resulting from recent Iranian sabre-rattling in the Strait of Hormuz again raise the threat of a cut-off of oil supplies, the consequences of which would be far worse than in 1973. The strait is the only sea passage to the ocean for large areas of the Persian Gulf. About 14 tankers carrying 15.5 million barrels of oil pass through it on an average day. Unfortunately, memories are short, history is too quickly forgotten (the President was only a child at the time of the 1973 embargo, as is no doubt true of many members of Congress — if they were even born) and it is the seeming fate of initiative to be smothered by complacency.

The President has affirmed the administration’s commitment to increasing energy security in his “Blueprint for a Secure Energy Future,” which he unveiled in March 2011, as well as in various other addresses. While this commitment is to be commended, he needs to up the ante: we are more vulnerable than ever. The result, as Carter noted in his MEOW speech, could be catastrophic. Now that the troops are coming home from Iraq, it’s time to declare a war for energy security.

A serious, well-funded initiative to promote national energy security could have benefits far beyond those of releasing us from the grip of foreign oil: it could also stimulate the economy, create jobs and establish the United States as a world leader in alternative energy, just as an interruption of natural gas supplies from Russia prompted Germany to turn to solar.

The President is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union address later this month, in which he should highlight the importance of energy security. But this time, a MEOW won’t be enough — we need a roar.

Antenna Group is the nation’s largest clean technology public relations firm, representing companies in sectors including renewable energy, energy efficiency, alternative fuels, energy storage, finance, waste management and water. Here, drawn from input provided by our client-partners, is Antenna’s list of the top 10 clean tech trends to watch in 2012. Judging from the changes that are in the offing, 2012 is shaping up to be a critical year in the transition to a cleaner, more energy-efficient world.

1. Energy efficiency goes retro – New construction has taken a massive hit over the last few years, resulting in fewer new green builds, but that hasn’t slowed retrofit demand for energy efficient devices. According to a report by McGraw-Hill Construction in 2011, 78 percent of building owners plan to retrofit existing properties with energy efficient improvements. Driven by the increased awareness in Property Assessed Clean Energy or PACE states (in which property owners can finance solar systems or energy efficiency retrofits through city loans that are paid back through property taxes over terms of 15 or 20 years), Obama’s Better Buildings Challenge and new financing models that make it simple for cities and property owners to do upgrades, expect to see energy efficiency finally claim its moment in the spotlight.
2. Cellulosic biomass comes online; drives U.S. manufacturing jobs – Imagine being able to turn a wide variety of biomass inputs including wood, agricultural waste and non-food crops into fuels, plastics, nutraceuticals (food products that reportedly provide health and medical benefits) and pharmaceuticals. That’s the promise of bio-based materials, which are expected to replace first-generation biofuels such as bioethanol and biodiesel, as well as a wide variety of synthetic chemicals. As strategics such as BASF Corp., DuPont and Dow Chemical Co. enter the cellulosic biomass game, watch for the number of U.S.-based biorefineries to dramatically increase.
3. Recycling finds its true potential – Many of us still remember the awareness campaigns that drove what are now highly successful changes in consumer behaviors with regard to recycling. As went paper, glass and plastics, so go consumer electronics and tires. A number of states already have legislation around recycling what consumers have deemed “waste” and are supporting efforts to renew those materials and give them second — and perhaps even third — lives. Watch for the big box, telecom, tire and asphalt sectors to pick up the sustainability baton for Recycling 2.0.
4. The EV market picks up speed, while Tesla, Fisker get some competition – While we’ve heard a lot about electric vehicles such as the all-electric Nissan Leaf and the gas-electric hybrid Chevy Volt, in fact there are precious few of these cars on the roads. But that’s expected to change in 2012 when a much wider selection of cars that require little or no gasoline will hit the market. Almost every major automaker — and some minor ones — plans to have at least one plug-in model on the market by the end of 2012. These include three models from the world’s leading seller of hybrids, Toyota — a plug-in hybrid version of the popular Prius, the all-electric Scion iQ EV and the 2012 RAV4 EV, an all-electric compact SUV. Also hitting the market in 2012 is the all-electric Ford Focus Electric, which will compete with the Nissan Leaf. Other EV models planned for 2012 include the four-passenger Mitsubishi i-MiEVc, and — for the luxury loving — the Rolls Royce 102EX, the Tesla Model S luxury sedan and the Fisker Karma luxury sports plug-in hybrid. Accompanying the EV rollout will be a dramatic expansion of the national car-charging infrastructure, with Pike Research, a clean tech market research firm, predicting more than 1.5 locations by 2017.
5. Smart meters reach critical mass – For decades, utilities have been forced to rely on customer reports to discover a power outage. This decidedly low-tech approach to reliability is now changing with the national deployment of smart meters that record the consumption of electric energy in intervals of an hour or less, communicate data back to the utility and allow consumers to better manage their electricity usage. And, the national deployment of smart meters is forging ahead: according to federal sources, the current penetration rate is 13 to 18 percent, with a penetration rate of more than 50 percent predicted by 2016.
6. Offshore wind takes root in the Northeast – While small wind continues to grow, the greatest potential for the significant generation of energy from wind lies with offshore wind. Much of the eastern seaboard is ideal for offshore wind as a result of the fact that the relatively shallow waters of the continental shelf make it easier to locate wind turbines far offshore where the winds are the strongest. A 25-megawatt wind farm off the coast of Atlantic City, N.J., which is expected to be the nation’s first, is now moving ahead, and the Garden State can look forward to the construction of larger offshore wind farms with the implementation of the nation’s first OREC, or Offshore Renewable Energy Certificate, a wind incentive similar to New Jersey’s innovative Solar Renewable Energy Certificate, or SREC, which propelled the state to second place nationally after California in solar capacity and inspired similar incentives in many other states.
7. Dropping balance-of-system costs nudge solar closer to grid parity – As a result of a dramatic decline in module prices (prices dropped approximately 40 percent in 2011 — a decline that is expected to continue through 2012), attention has shifted to solar balance-of-system (BOS) costs, a term that refers to costs other than those of the modules. While BOS costs include physical components such as inverters and racking, the largest share of BOS costs is for non-physical costs such as labor and permitting. These costs are also expected to decline in 2012 as a result of industry consolidation resulting from the expiration of the Section 1603 Treasury Grant Program. The solar boom stimulated by the grant attracted many small installers (the “two Chucks and a truck” phenomenon) who will be replaced in a maturing market by larger players who will bring improved operating efficiencies to the industry, nudging solar closer to grid parity.
8. Distributed solar continues to thrive – While debate continues on the role of utility-scale photovoltaic systems in the nation’s energy mix, the small- to mid-sized commercial solar segment has witnessed explosive growth, particularly on flat-roofed commercial buildings that are ideally suited to the deployment of solar. New Jersey, for instance, where strong solar incentives and high energy prices have contributed to a robust local solar industry, has now outpaced California as the nation’s top commercial solar market, thanks to a high concentration of such buildings. In addition to reducing electricity costs and providing a hedge against future rate increases, distributed — or “behind-the-meter” — solar also has the advantage of generating power at the site where it is used, thus increasing energy security and diminishing demand for utility infrastructure. The U.S. growth pattern in commercial solar is mimicking what has occurred in Europe, most notably in Germany, the world’s solar leader, where the German Solar Energy Industry Association estimated in 2009 that 80 percent of capacity was roof-based.
9. Grant-to-tax credit shift means more third-party ownership of solar systems – The introduction of the federal Section 1603 Treasury Grant Program as a substitute for a federal Investment Tax Credit in 2009 created a change in the form of ownership for most commercial solar systems. Prior to the implementation of the treasury grant, which covers 30 percent of the cost of solar, most commercial systems were owned, operated and maintained by third-party investors with the tax appetites to monetize the tax credit. These investors typically sold the power back to the host entities at reduced rates under a long-term contract called a Power Purchase Agreement, or PPA. In addition to requiring no capital outlay, the benefits for the host entities included a fixed rate, a smaller carbon footprint and a visible renewable asset. After the implementation of the Treasury Grant Program, the form of ownership shifted, with the majority of commercial building owners taking advantage of the immediate payback offered by the grant to install and operate the systems themselves. With the grant reverting to a tax credit in 2012, however, we can expect a shift back to third-party ownership.
10. Gas-to-liquids technologies go mainstream – Gas-to-liquids (GTL) technologies, which transform natural gas into liquid transportation fuels, went mainstream with the recent completion of Shell’s $19 billion Pearl GTL plant in Qatar, an Arab emirate. The world’s largest GTL plant will process about three billion barrels of diesel, jet fuel and synthetic oil over the course of its lifetime from the world’s largest gas field. The project, which will reach full production in 2012, will add almost 8 percent to Shell’s worldwide production, making it the company’s primary growth engine for 2012. The completion of the Pearl facility is a harbinger of things to come: GTL technology is expected to play an increasingly significant role in meeting energy demand in the United States, which has some of the world’s largest natural gas reserves. South Africa-based Sasol, which also has a GTL plant in Qatar, has announced plans to build a $10 billion GTL plant Louisiana. If it moves ahead, it would be the United States’ first GTL facility. Once viewed as not economically feasible, GTL technologies are gaining traction in the face of declining oil reserves, high oil prices and increased concern about energy security.

For more information on Antenna Group, please visit www.antennagroup.com.

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