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Antenna Group is the nation’s largest clean technology public relations firm, representing companies in sectors including renewable energy, energy efficiency, alternative fuels, energy storage, finance, waste management and water. Here, drawn from input provided by our client-partners, is Antenna’s list of the top 10 clean tech trends to watch in 2012. Judging from the changes that are in the offing, 2012 is shaping up to be a critical year in the transition to a cleaner, more energy-efficient world.

1. Energy efficiency goes retro – New construction has taken a massive hit over the last few years, resulting in fewer new green builds, but that hasn’t slowed retrofit demand for energy efficient devices. According to a report by McGraw-Hill Construction in 2011, 78 percent of building owners plan to retrofit existing properties with energy efficient improvements. Driven by the increased awareness in Property Assessed Clean Energy or PACE states (in which property owners can finance solar systems or energy efficiency retrofits through city loans that are paid back through property taxes over terms of 15 or 20 years), Obama’s Better Buildings Challenge and new financing models that make it simple for cities and property owners to do upgrades, expect to see energy efficiency finally claim its moment in the spotlight.
2. Cellulosic biomass comes online; drives U.S. manufacturing jobs – Imagine being able to turn a wide variety of biomass inputs including wood, agricultural waste and non-food crops into fuels, plastics, nutraceuticals (food products that reportedly provide health and medical benefits) and pharmaceuticals. That’s the promise of bio-based materials, which are expected to replace first-generation biofuels such as bioethanol and biodiesel, as well as a wide variety of synthetic chemicals. As strategics such as BASF Corp., DuPont and Dow Chemical Co. enter the cellulosic biomass game, watch for the number of U.S.-based biorefineries to dramatically increase.
3. Recycling finds its true potential – Many of us still remember the awareness campaigns that drove what are now highly successful changes in consumer behaviors with regard to recycling. As went paper, glass and plastics, so go consumer electronics and tires. A number of states already have legislation around recycling what consumers have deemed “waste” and are supporting efforts to renew those materials and give them second — and perhaps even third — lives. Watch for the big box, telecom, tire and asphalt sectors to pick up the sustainability baton for Recycling 2.0.
4. The EV market picks up speed, while Tesla, Fisker get some competition – While we’ve heard a lot about electric vehicles such as the all-electric Nissan Leaf and the gas-electric hybrid Chevy Volt, in fact there are precious few of these cars on the roads. But that’s expected to change in 2012 when a much wider selection of cars that require little or no gasoline will hit the market. Almost every major automaker — and some minor ones — plans to have at least one plug-in model on the market by the end of 2012. These include three models from the world’s leading seller of hybrids, Toyota — a plug-in hybrid version of the popular Prius, the all-electric Scion iQ EV and the 2012 RAV4 EV, an all-electric compact SUV. Also hitting the market in 2012 is the all-electric Ford Focus Electric, which will compete with the Nissan Leaf. Other EV models planned for 2012 include the four-passenger Mitsubishi i-MiEVc, and — for the luxury loving — the Rolls Royce 102EX, the Tesla Model S luxury sedan and the Fisker Karma luxury sports plug-in hybrid. Accompanying the EV rollout will be a dramatic expansion of the national car-charging infrastructure, with Pike Research, a clean tech market research firm, predicting more than 1.5 locations by 2017.
5. Smart meters reach critical mass – For decades, utilities have been forced to rely on customer reports to discover a power outage. This decidedly low-tech approach to reliability is now changing with the national deployment of smart meters that record the consumption of electric energy in intervals of an hour or less, communicate data back to the utility and allow consumers to better manage their electricity usage. And, the national deployment of smart meters is forging ahead: according to federal sources, the current penetration rate is 13 to 18 percent, with a penetration rate of more than 50 percent predicted by 2016.
6. Offshore wind takes root in the Northeast – While small wind continues to grow, the greatest potential for the significant generation of energy from wind lies with offshore wind. Much of the eastern seaboard is ideal for offshore wind as a result of the fact that the relatively shallow waters of the continental shelf make it easier to locate wind turbines far offshore where the winds are the strongest. A 25-megawatt wind farm off the coast of Atlantic City, N.J., which is expected to be the nation’s first, is now moving ahead, and the Garden State can look forward to the construction of larger offshore wind farms with the implementation of the nation’s first OREC, or Offshore Renewable Energy Certificate, a wind incentive similar to New Jersey’s innovative Solar Renewable Energy Certificate, or SREC, which propelled the state to second place nationally after California in solar capacity and inspired similar incentives in many other states.
7. Dropping balance-of-system costs nudge solar closer to grid parity – As a result of a dramatic decline in module prices (prices dropped approximately 40 percent in 2011 — a decline that is expected to continue through 2012), attention has shifted to solar balance-of-system (BOS) costs, a term that refers to costs other than those of the modules. While BOS costs include physical components such as inverters and racking, the largest share of BOS costs is for non-physical costs such as labor and permitting. These costs are also expected to decline in 2012 as a result of industry consolidation resulting from the expiration of the Section 1603 Treasury Grant Program. The solar boom stimulated by the grant attracted many small installers (the “two Chucks and a truck” phenomenon) who will be replaced in a maturing market by larger players who will bring improved operating efficiencies to the industry, nudging solar closer to grid parity.
8. Distributed solar continues to thrive – While debate continues on the role of utility-scale photovoltaic systems in the nation’s energy mix, the small- to mid-sized commercial solar segment has witnessed explosive growth, particularly on flat-roofed commercial buildings that are ideally suited to the deployment of solar. New Jersey, for instance, where strong solar incentives and high energy prices have contributed to a robust local solar industry, has now outpaced California as the nation’s top commercial solar market, thanks to a high concentration of such buildings. In addition to reducing electricity costs and providing a hedge against future rate increases, distributed — or “behind-the-meter” — solar also has the advantage of generating power at the site where it is used, thus increasing energy security and diminishing demand for utility infrastructure. The U.S. growth pattern in commercial solar is mimicking what has occurred in Europe, most notably in Germany, the world’s solar leader, where the German Solar Energy Industry Association estimated in 2009 that 80 percent of capacity was roof-based.
9. Grant-to-tax credit shift means more third-party ownership of solar systems – The introduction of the federal Section 1603 Treasury Grant Program as a substitute for a federal Investment Tax Credit in 2009 created a change in the form of ownership for most commercial solar systems. Prior to the implementation of the treasury grant, which covers 30 percent of the cost of solar, most commercial systems were owned, operated and maintained by third-party investors with the tax appetites to monetize the tax credit. These investors typically sold the power back to the host entities at reduced rates under a long-term contract called a Power Purchase Agreement, or PPA. In addition to requiring no capital outlay, the benefits for the host entities included a fixed rate, a smaller carbon footprint and a visible renewable asset. After the implementation of the Treasury Grant Program, the form of ownership shifted, with the majority of commercial building owners taking advantage of the immediate payback offered by the grant to install and operate the systems themselves. With the grant reverting to a tax credit in 2012, however, we can expect a shift back to third-party ownership.
10. Gas-to-liquids technologies go mainstream – Gas-to-liquids (GTL) technologies, which transform natural gas into liquid transportation fuels, went mainstream with the recent completion of Shell’s $19 billion Pearl GTL plant in Qatar, an Arab emirate. The world’s largest GTL plant will process about three billion barrels of diesel, jet fuel and synthetic oil over the course of its lifetime from the world’s largest gas field. The project, which will reach full production in 2012, will add almost 8 percent to Shell’s worldwide production, making it the company’s primary growth engine for 2012. The completion of the Pearl facility is a harbinger of things to come: GTL technology is expected to play an increasingly significant role in meeting energy demand in the United States, which has some of the world’s largest natural gas reserves. South Africa-based Sasol, which also has a GTL plant in Qatar, has announced plans to build a $10 billion GTL plant Louisiana. If it moves ahead, it would be the United States’ first GTL facility. Once viewed as not economically feasible, GTL technologies are gaining traction in the face of declining oil reserves, high oil prices and increased concern about energy security.

For more information on Antenna Group, please visit www.antennagroup.com.

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On the roof, I had the very intellectual job of ratcheting and wiring and carrying panels. I found out what a weeb is (email me at wei at antenngroup dot com if you want to know too) and I also found out that being OCD is a very good thing when arranging panels. No one wants crooked panels on their roof, and we made sure that everything was laid out just nice. We measured and placed the panels on the racks that had been drilled into the rafter, and proceeded to connect the cables together.

Being OCD

Ratcheting is fun!

Finally, after only 4 hours, it was done! Joe, our construction lead on the roof, stayed back to make sure everything was perfect, and then we all leaped down to take the requisite photos on the scaffolding, and to turn on the connection. It was extremely satisfying, especially when saw that we had beat the Google team, who was still up on their roof.

Here’s Joe on the roof, making sure our wiring isn’t going to lead to an explosion

Why do I care about roof rafters? How do I bend conduit? Why am I lying in an attic pulling cables down from the roof? And what the heck is a weeb?

All these questions were answered two weeks ago on Sept. 12, when I participated in Grid Alternative’s Annual Solarthon in Oakland. In this massive undertaking, 300 people gathered on a drizzling, overcast Saturday to install solar panels on 16 houses in one low-income community, in one day. GRID Alternatives is a non-profit organization making solar electric systems a reality for low-income homeowners who otherwise could not afford the systems. GRID does this through an innovative business model where they train volunteers to do everything from designing a system on a sheet of paper to mounting the final panel on a roof. With drastically reduced labor costs, a team of 10-15 volunteers can work slowly and steadily under the guidance of a GRID employee to deliver a complete system at almost half the cost of a typical solar system.

Volunteers

At this event, besides corporate sponsors like Google, there were cleantech advocate teams like the one I had joined, Cleantechies. As part of the Cleantechies team, we had undergone our “installer” training a few weeks prior. We also all had to pledge to raise at least $250 before we got up on the roof. The houses had all been built by Habitat for Humanity, and some of the proud owners were working side by side with us.

When I got to Oakland, I was cranky, tired, and uninspired by the weather. But it was hard to keep that way as a buzz of adrenaline ran through the crowd. The coffee and breakfast provided helped to cheer me up, and I was feeling excited before you could say: “Put on your hardhat!”

Now, I’m no stranger to rooftops and solar installations. Through my work at Antenna, I’ve found myself on rooftops in San Jose to military solar installations in Nellis Air Force base. Some rooftops have been precarious–”just try to hang on” and others have been relatively welcoming and flat. And I’ve also seen tons of different panels. But did I ever know how much a panel weighs, or how to carry one? (37 pounds and facing inwards, FYI). And had I ever installed one before? No. This was going to be a first for me, and I couldn’t wait to get started.

Taking instructions

I was told we would have the opportunity to use power tools. Being non-mechanical in nature, I was excited that someone was trusting enough to empower me with a drill. I was also relishing the thought of mounting the inverter and doing all sorts of construction-y things.

(Un)fortunately, most of the power drilling in the afternoon ended up being done by someone else on the ground team, mainly because mid-day when they asked for roof volunteers, I had already knocked old ladies to the ground in my eagerness to get to the front of the line. I left the others to mount inverter boxes and wire circuitry behind me without a second thought.

Before I clambered onto the roof though, we had to raise the panels up onto the roof, which involved a human chain system of people on different levels of scaffolding passing the panels from the ground-up.

The human supply chain

Check back next week for Part 2 where the real fun begins with the installation: wiring, ratcheting and the admiration of a job well done.

While I’m not the world’s biggest fan of “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition,” I can appreciate the benefits the show provides for a variety of deserving families, as well as the boost a product can receive from being featured on it. So when I heard one of my clients, Akeena Solar, would be providing a featured solar system to a family in Southern California that was being highlighted on the show, I started getting excited. What could be better for a solar company than a little celebrity endorsement from none other than the well-tanned, well-groomed Ty Pennington with the well-spiked hair?

When I first heard the news a few months ago, the episode wasn’t set to air until the end of March. Immediately, Akeena crews hustled down to San Bernardino to install the system in what amounted to a matter of hours. It was then that I started paying a bit more attention to the show: nearly every weekend the builders featured a new green building element—bamboo floors, eco-friendly paint, energy efficient appliances, and lots and lots of solar systems. And each time the green element was explained, it seemed to become more and more…well, normal, to feature these types of products. They look great and are environmentally friendly, the designers said. They are quality products with real cost-savings benefits, the builders said. They just made sense, Ty said.

Installing Akeena's Andalay Solar Panels

Had going green become mainstream?

For a while, my public relations team was able to rely on the uniqueness of solar when pitching the media. We could leverage the story of that kooky family down the block who installed a solar system, watched their meter spin backwards and never paid the electric company more than $12. But that was because not everyone had a solar system; people weren’t accustomed to seeing silicon panels popping up on rooftops everywhere. Fast-forward a few months, and solar—while not reaching the point of widespread adoption by any means—is no longer unfamiliar. Journalists tell me that the latest installation isn’t big enough, it isn’t sexy enough, and it’s something they’ve already covered. During those lonely hours watching late-night television, green suddenly begins to work its way into the vocabulary of infomercials and QVC. And green guides everywhere are popping up telling consumers how to shop.

It’s still a long road for green products to be the default choice in consumer’s brains. But with millions of viewers tuning in each weekend to see how easily green elements can be incorporated into homes, it’s going to get a lot easier to be green.

For decades, consumers understood that eating foods high in fat had serious health risks.  But it took years of education, standardized nutrition labels and even bans on trans fats before we started changing our ways. Now, we consult nutritional labels on menus, in the grocery store and in recipes before we even think of lifting fork to mouth.

This model of labeling can also be applied to working to reduce global climate change. In the US House, Democratic leaders say they’re planning to take up legislation on a US cap and trade system this year.   The sooner companies move to put carbon labels on products across the spectrum, the better they might fare when Carbon Cap and Trade regulations are eventually implemented.

The concept is pretty straightforward: identify and label the carbon footprint of products and services so businesses and consumers can make informed choices about the carbon impact of their purchases.   And as consumer brands start to adopt this practice, there is downward pressure on suppliers to capture their carbon information and consider reductions as well.  Sort of a trickle down “carbon-omics” effect.

Companies are not only taking an inventory of their carbon emissions throughout their manufacturing process, but they are also being honest with consumers about what their footprint is and plans for reducing it. The great difficulty lies in the execution and standardization of these labels.  Still, a whole host of businesses, advocacy groups and governments are jumping into the effort.  Here’s a look at what they’re doing:

The United Kingdom started forging this path in 2001, with the roll out of the pilot program Carbon Trust and its Carbon Reduction Label. The non-profit is helping a handful businesses become accountable for their lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions including production, transportation, use, and disposal. Pepsico and the UK supermarket chain Tesco are the biggest participants.

In Japan, the Trade Ministry is overseeing an ambitious plan rolling out this year which will require carbon footprint labeling on food packaging and other products – a program the government sees as an integral step in reaching Japan’s stated goal of reducing total carbon emissions by up to 80% by 2050.

In the U.S., the Carbon Fund and the Climate Conservancy are doing similar work and California has its own Carbon Labeling Act of 2008 working to “establish a methodology for determining and communicating the carbon footprint of a consumer product[s]”. Other countries such as Sweden and South Korea are working on their own carbon labeling systems, all based on similar philosophies, but with different visual approaches.

Until enough time has passed and enough labels are out there to educate the public and have meaningful data to evaluate, carbon labeling will do more to help companies become aware of their own carbon footprints than sell more products.

But that’s ok: All new ideas with no benchmark go through cycles of trial and error. It took over five different automobile models to get the pedal and shifting layout we’re so accustomed to today (thank you Top Gear ), so there’s no reason carbon labeling should be any easier.

The day will come when companies will have to account for their carbon footprints and those that do it early are likely to have a competitive edge. However, carbon labels on their own are not going to reduce carbon emissions to the levels needed to stem the effects of climate change, but they can be used as a tool to raise awareness and help implement larger regulation. Just as in the calorie debate, it took bans on trans fats to drive industry to be more transparent about what’s in our food, carbon fat isn’t much different.

When written in Chinese, the word “crisis” is composed of two characters - one represents danger and the other represents opportunity.  While I won’t try to put a positive spin on the economic turmoil that we face today, I will say that there is something to gain by seeking the positive. Without losing sight of that light at the end of the tunnel, we can alter our course temporarily while we wait for the storm to pass.

For some (including a number of my friends who have been laid off), this means applying to graduate school and “skipping out” as wage-earners altogether for a few years.  For others, it means delving deep into their creative and entrepreneurial spirits and seeking innovation at a time when nothing seems harder to do. There are many options to consider when presented with a roadblock, but the point is that the worst thing you can do is throw your hands up in despair and quit, for that could mean missing out on a golden opportunity.

It’s hard to believe, but the current $17 billion global drywall industry faced a supply shortage ten years ago as a result of the 1998 “building boom”. Building projects were stalled for months, new home construction stopped mid-way through production, and many families were left homeless. Yet, drywall factories were still running at capacity.

In this situation, the demand for drywall was directly related to the strong economy and consumer confidence. It also meant that drywall manufacturers were elated because they could sell 100% of their production, and the scarcity of the product meant that they could charge premium prices. As a consequence, it made economic sense for drywall companies to import the product from overseas instead of producing in the US. Shortly thereafter, the residential housing market collapsed, and an under-supply situation turned into an over-supply practically overnight–volumes and prices went into freefall.  Now, in 2009, the drywall market is the worst it has ever been.

This catastrophe within the building materials industry was an incentive for change. With oversupply in the local market and prices at an all-time low, it didn’t make sense to keep importing drywall. Instead of packing up and going home, people like Rod MacGregor, CEO of Antenna client CleanBoard, identified one segment of the market that was still growing: green building materials.  The drywall shortage gave way to expansion within this industry, and advancements in green/sustainable building materials market were born out of this disaster. According to McGraw-Hill Construction, green construction will grow from $12 billion in 2008 to $60 billion in 2010.  That’s the type of growth that the PC saw in the 80s and the Internet saw in the 90s.

Another popular Chinese saying is “be not afraid of going slowly; be afraid only of standing still.” While many markets are tumultuous right now, it’s worth remembering that there are numerous examples of technology and innovations that were developed in the face of hardship. Turning a crisis into an opportunity isn’t just a good idea, its good business.

Antenna Group client Barry Cinnamon, CEO of Akeena Solar, represented the Silicon Valley Leadership Group in its support of the Bay Area building the nation’s first network of charging stations for the electric vehicle. The initiative received a $1 Billion investment from the Palo Alto based company, Better Place, which has built similar charging networks in Israel, Denmark and Australia.

San Francisco Mayor Newsom speaking at the Silicon Valley Leadership Group.

San Francisco Mayor Newsom says even though he drives a hybrid, he feels it doesn’t go far enough (he’s currently on the waiting list for a Tesla), and San Francisco should do what it can to help all area residents overcome the hurdles of electric vehicle ownership. Left from the podium, Newsom is joined by Shai Aggasi, CEO of Better Place Bay Area, California State Senator Mark Leno, Akeena CEO Barry Cinnamon and Jim Wunderman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Bay Area Council.

Akeena Solar CEO Barry Cinnamon shakes hands with noted environmentalist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Akeena Solar CEO Barry Cinnamon spoke on behalf of the Silicon Valley Business Leadership Group at the press conference. Driving up from his company’s headquarters in Los Gatos, Cinnamon said he enjoyed seeing the plethora of roof-mounted photovoltaic systems on homes (more than 66 percent of the state’s solar systems are on homes in Northern California). According to the SVLG, the investment from Better Place could allow Silicon Valley to distinguish itself as an innovation hub for electric vehicles.